The concept of early warning is one of the modern concepts based on prediction of negative situations before they occur, by monitoring and interpreting danger signs and to sending reports to decision-makers. Early warning system is known as a tool that gives prior signs or signals to the probability of malfunction or crisis occurrence before they happen and aggravate.
Early warning system depends mainly on:
1. Providing a comprehensive and accurate base of information and data on all aspects.
2. Providing the required electronic link between databases to provide an integrated network.
3. Good planning for crisis management, which would study the possible scenarios and determine the definition of all crises and risks that Erbil may be exposed to, along with the effects and implications of all of the risks that have been identified
4. The ability to read the indicators correctly.
5. Efficient decision-making and implementation (being able to respond to the indicators by taking the decision in a timely manner and implement the necessary action with high efficiency).
6. Availability of capabilities to deal with the identified risks.
Global attention has been dramatically given to both the economic and security early warning indicators. However, early warning systems at the level of governments should include environmental, social and health aspects in addition to the economic and political/security aspects. Thus, the databases, which are the basis of the early warning system, are branching out to social safety network, economic security network, environmental safety network, health safety network and political/security safety network. Each network is linked to a sub-warning system that alerts decision makers with the probability of risks in a particular area.
The provision of an integrated and efficient early warning system required several years. However, the first step is to design the necessary databases and make a qualitative development in the areas covered by periodic statistics and statistical cadres, both quality and quantity wise. The next phase (2016-2018) may also include the implementation of the electronic design of a preliminary version of the crisis management system in addition to training the staff concerned with statistics.
The importance of the existence of an integrated system for early warning and crisis management has become evident in the years 2013 and 2014 with the growing influx of displaced people to the Region and governorates and displaced groups began to affect the social fabric composition and structure of populations. The existence of such system has increased when Erbil was exposed to terrorist attacks when ISIS forces tried to access the governorate through a number of coward bombings.
Erbil is currently depending on an emergency committee “operations rooms” which meets in the event of danger in order to manage the resulting impacts, which is a course based on reactions rather than anticipations of acts and trying to prevent them. The need to provide an integrated scientific methodology for crisis management is an urgent and essential need to ensure the preservation of Erbil’s developmental gains against risks of all kinds.